By: Matthew Graham
For years, the Annual Enrollment Period (AEP) was a licensed insurance agent’s season. October 15 arrived, the phones lit up, and the advisers who had spent the summer preparing walked into the most productive 53 days of the year. That dynamic is not disappearing. But it is changing, and licensed insurance agents who understand what the data is telling them, and more importantly, what it is asking of them, will be the ones who own this season.
Here is what the data says.
According to the CMS Monthly Online Enrollment Center (OEC) report, enrollments through Medicare.gov’s Online Enrollment Center have been accelerating in a way that cannot be explained by organic beneficiary growth alone. From 2020 through 2023, OEC enrollment grew modestly: 8.6% in 2021, 9.8% in 2022 and nearly flat at 2.4% in 2023. Then something shifted. In 2024, full-year OEC enrollments jumped 44.2%, from 387,479 to 558,574. In 2025, they jumped again, another 41.3%, reaching 789,036. Through the first six months of 2026, OEC enrollment is running 23.5% ahead of the same period last year.
That is not a trend. That is a structural change.
And the most important part of the story is where that growth is concentrated. The largest year-over-year monthly increases are not happening in January or February, when beneficiaries are sorting through coverage changes. They are happening in October, November and December, during AEP.
Look at the AEP numbers directly. In the October through December 2023 window, approximately 209,000 beneficiaries enrolled through OEC. In 2024, that number climbed to 351,000. In 2025, it reached 539,000. That is a 158% increase in OEC AEP enrollments in two years.
What is driving this, and what it demands of us
The most credible explanation, and the one that licensed insurance agents need to understand clearly, is carrier behavior. KFF reports that as Medicare Advantage plans have pulled back from certain markets, reduced benefits and tightened networks, Medicare.gov has continued to make those plans available without the friction of the agent-assisted process that was previously the primary enrollment pathway for most beneficiaries. Beneficiaries who might once have relied on a licensed insurance agent are finding their own way to the platform and completing enrollments independently.
This is the part where some breathe a sigh of relief and say: “At least I didn’t have to sell a non-commissionable plan.” That would be the wrong lesson to take. Some beneficiaries may benefit from personalized assistance when comparing plan options and evaluating coverage based on their individual needs.
The licensed insurance agents who are building the strongest practices in this environment are the ones who have made a deliberate commitment to showing up even when the enrollment does not pay, to having the honest conversation about a plan that may not generate a commission but may be the right fit for that client’s needs, and to treating the relationship as the asset rather than the transaction. That is not an idealistic posture. It is a practical one. A client who experiences that kind of advocacy does not go to Medicare.gov next year. They call you.
What this means for your AEP
The beneficiary who finds their way to Medicare.gov in October is already motivated to make a decision. They are not waiting on a call. They are not passive. The question is whether they find you before they find the website, whether your value is clear before the enrollment window opens and whether your relationship with your existing book is strong enough that your clients do not see Medicare.gov as an easier option than picking up the phone.
This is where ethical commitment becomes a competitive advantage. When your clients know, from experience, that you recommend what is right for them rather than what pays you the most, you have built something no platform can replicate. That trust converts into retained clients, into referrals, into a book of business that grows because of its reputation rather than despite it.
The licensed insurance agents who are winning in a high-OEC-growth environment are not fighting the platform. They are doing what the platform cannot: having a real conversation, accounting for the full picture of a client’s health, finances and coverage history and delivering an outcome that reflects the client’s interest, not the commission schedule. The platform is not the competition. The licensed insurance agents who believe that ethical advocacy is optional are.
